Even as there is new evidence of the near-term negative impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the US economy, Trump’s recent, unprovoked escalation of duties on Canada prompts the question: Where is US trade policy headed and what long-term systemic changes does it portend for bilateral trade and investment?

When the Administration announced sweeping new tariffs last month, Washington quickly turned to familiar debates: would the bond market force a retreat? Could the Administration strike “90 deals in 90 days” as promised? Would consumer prices spike before the midterms?

The Trump Administration, led by the U.S. State Department, is ramping up its attacks on the EU’s digital rules. At the heart of this new push is the EU’s Digital Services Act, adopted in 2022, which regulates European activities of the world’s largest digital platforms, many of which are American.

As the U.S. reimagines its development and economic statecraft tools in the wake of USAID’s dismantling, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is the smart power tool that the United States needs to reach for in its toolbox.

China’s recent release of DeepSeek has escalated the AI race between the U.S. and China, and the competition for the best and brightest minds will be critical. Talent is a leading factor in the leadership race in emerging technologies. While China far outpaces the U.S. in its supply of domestic talent, the U.S. has historically maintained its leadership through its ability to attract and retain international talent. The U.S. is in danger of losing that lead, unless it expands the flow of highly skilled immigration, and invests in expanding the American skilled workforce.

The renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement was never going to be a cakewalk. But President-elect Trump’s announcement last week that he will issue executive orders imposing 25 percent tariffs on all imported goods from Mexico and Canada threatens the agreement that is the guiding framework for free trade and economic growth in North America.

Annual temperatures are at the warmest levels since record keeping began¹, bringing urgency to government, business, and individual efforts to stem the climate crisis. At the same time, the transition away from fossil fuels and towards more sustainable and renewable sources of energy is upending economies, requiring transformations of manufacturing industries and investments in new industries such as batteries and other “green” technologies. Against these trends, policymakers are juggling their climate mitigation efforts while still encouraging current and future economic growth.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to become one of the most impactful and consequential societal revolutions of the 21st century, with enormous benefits and risks that the world is just beginning to understand.

ALI’s new white paper, U.S. Leadership on AI Global Govenance, outlines the AI global governance landscape and associated gaps in policy in order to establish the importance of U.S. leadership in developing a global AI regulatory framework.

Much of the handwringing about AI over the past year has been about whether it will help humanity or invite some dystopian abyss. Less attention has been paid to what bad global actors can and will do with the technology (or already are doing), and how a Wild West approach to AI could endanger not just jobs but eventually national security.

Digital tools are especially important for women-owned businesses looking to expand to international markets. The recent pause in the U.S. government’s participation in negotiations on digital policies will disproportionally affect U.S. micro, small and medium-sized businesses (MSMEs), particularly women-owned companies.

ALI’s new report, Building An EV and Critical Mineral Supply Chain Agreement will explore how negotiating a supply chain agreement that has high labor and environmental standards can address all three policy goals.

The electric vehicle revolution that’s been sweeping the world has finally arrived in America, powered by technology, an urgency to address climate change and the nudge of government incentives that became a push with the Inflation Reduction Act. 

This is good news, it seems — until you look under the hood. 

The Biden Administration has launched a new model of bilateral economic engagement, moving away from traditional trade agreements. This is best reflected in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) but is also seen in its Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity, the U.S.-Taiwan 21st Century Initiative, and other programs. Partnerships between U.S. government and business will be key to the success of these innovative, new arrangements.

Fifty-nine countries have expanded access to abortion since 1980. Last week, the U.S. became one of the 11 countries that have restricted access in the past three decades, joining a club that includes Russia, Iran, North Korea and Nicaragua. In their dissenting opinion, Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan wrote that the U.S. “will become an international outlier after today.”

On June 15th, ALI CEO Dr. Orit Frenkel testified before the Senate Finance Committee Subcommittee on Trade, as part of their hearing on Supply Chain Resiliency and Strengthening Long Term Security. A recording is available in this post and click here to read her submitted statement.

U.S. engagement in the Pacific is critical to this country’s workers, small businesses, values and economic and national security interests. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is an important initiative, recognizing the value of the U.S. as a standard-setter — for worker, environmental, digital and infrastructure standards — in order to continue as a 21st century global leader.

Kudos to President Biden as he heads to the West Coast to host the Summit of the Americas, the first time the U.S. has hosted the event since the original summit was hosted by President Clinton in 1994. This will be an important opportunity to hear from U.S. partners and discuss ideas for advancing the region. What happens after the summit, however, is even more important than the meeting. The administration must take the results and implement a comprehensive strategy to compete with China and advance the Western Hemisphere.

Over the past decade, China has sharpened its focus on countries considered to be in the U.S. zone of influence. China’s trade with Central and Latin America has skyrocketed from $18B in 2002 to $449B in 2021, making it the second largest overall trading partner in the region and the largest trading partner with Brazil, Peru, Uruguay, and Chile. Its investment in the region has also grown dramatically with its Belt and Road initiative now in 20 countries in the region and over $140 billion of investment.

ALI is pleased to release its new report: Creating Incentives to Join the IndoPacific Economic Framework. The report details the incentives which should be offered to encourage a broad group of countries to join the IndoPacific Economic Framework.

The first step in advancing IPEF will be offering sufficient incentives to attract a broader group of countries to join the framework, especially the Fair and Resilient Trade Pillar. While the ASEAN countries welcome U.S. regional reengagement, the Trade Pillar’s digital, labor, and environmental standards will require heavy domestic concessions from them.

National security concerns regarding China and supply chain shortages spurred by the pandemic have led to a bipartisan momentum to shore up American competitiveness and encourage U.S. manufacturing. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia have raised new interest in reducing U.S. supply chain dependency on these autocratic regimes.

In late February, the White House released a plan to revitalize American manufacturing and secure critical supply chains, which details how to rebuild domestic supply chains by invigorating the U.S. industrial base. This policy shift towards restoring American competitiveness and manufacturing is also seen in the United States Innovation and Competition Act (USICA), a 2021 Senate bill aimed at countering China’s influence, and the House-passed America COMPETES Act of 2022.